How's Business? Recent Survey Results from Babcox

We recently surveyed Counterman readers about their current business conditions. Counterman magazine serves the business needs of the distribution channel of the aftermarket, so editorial is geared more towards the jobber, counterperson, or retailer. The survey was conducted in February, 2009. We had 126 responses.

Of the respondents, the majority (71%) classified themselves as a Jobber (NAPA, Carquest, independent, etc.) 20% classified themselves as a WD, and the rest were either a Retail store like Advance or AutoZone, or "other".

How are sales? We all want to know how the other guy is doing before we tell our tale. We asked how their sales in January compared to January last year. 60% reported sales were down, 23% reported they were the same.

How about February, we asked. 52% reported sales were down, 31% reported sales were the same. Oddly enough, for the months of January and February, 83% reported they were even or down. Yet, I take some comfort from the fact that the number reporting their sales were down had gone down 8%. That's a good sign that there is some life in the aftermarket.

What is your forecast for your locations' purchases from suppliers in March compared to March, 2008? 45% reported they would purchase less. But 51% reported they would purchase the same or more than last March. Again, not a bad indicator.

How are your current inventory levels compared to last year at this time? As you might expect, a large portion of the respondents had lower inventory levels (44%). But 33% had the same levels, and 22% had increased inventory.

We're all interested in the end user. Is he buying our stuff? Is he still working? We wanted to know, so we asked, "how does your current wholesale customer count compare to this time last year?" 44% reported they had fewer customers, 46% reported they had the same number, and 10% reported they had more customers than last year.

Last, we asked about returns. Answer this question yourself before you read too much further: What do you think is the industry rate of returns? I thought as an industry it runs about 18-22%. But according to our survey respondents, the total returns as a % of total sales averaged 9.7%. When we conducted this same survey five years ago, that number was 15%. So again, a good sign for our industry. Does this mean all the investments made in automation (from order entry to order processing) is finally paying off? This number includes warranty, cores, etc, so it is very inclusive.

One last thought, we asked them to classify the reason for their return. Cores, of course, accounted for the largest portion of the return - 48%. But the number one reason for a return is still the wrong part was ordered (17%). This was followed closely by warranty/defective (16%), with the wrong part delivered falling to a distant third, just 8%. This seems to indicate there can still be improvement in cataloging (both paper and digital) and training.

What do you think?

I think it's Friday, and Rascal is wondering if he's going to get his toy back.