Economic & Market Trends in the US - Part Two

On Friday, it all sounded so good - orders are up, prices are up, business is good. It's a bull market! But today, the bear steps in.
New Housing Units Started: Everyone's heard this news. Down, down down. From a high of 2,300 in January, 2006, the new housing starts fell to a low of 1,400 by June, 2007. This is the lowest rate since before 3rd quarter, 2002. Numbers have been seasonable adjusted.
Five-Year Unemployment Rate: Low, low, low. Today it is just over 4.5%. That means that practically everyone who wants to be employed, is working. Makes it tougher to get new employees and to keep them. Could cost employers profit dollars as you develop new ways to recruit new help. Sometimes salary alone is not enough.
Initial Jobless Claims: When initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits start to increase, the result is a bearish market. Claims are climbing my friends! It means some employers are reluctant to hire (afraid of the future?)so those people who have been put out of work, are making new claims.

In summary, the good news comes to us from the GDP, CPI, PPI, factory Orders, Durable goods Orders and Oil Prices. These all bode well for our businesses in the near-term future.
The not-as-good news is in housing starts, the housing index, the unemployment rate, and initial jobless claims.

In our little tool world, here's how the big boys have done recently. Using a sales index that includes Cooper, Emerson, Snap-on, Stanley, Black & Decker, Danaher, and Newell Rubbermaid, by year-end 2006, this group represented a 6.4% increase in sales. Through the first half of 2007, their sales index was up only 3.1%