Quick Update on Tool Shows

Laguna Beach, looking south.

David Bonitz, Silvertronics' Director of Sales for North America, shows off the quality of one of his leads to a Cornwell Dealer.
Patrick Gottsch, of CRKT (Columbia River Knife and Tool) had a great display. Knives are a hot item with mobile distributors.

Bill Stemple, VP of Marketing for Cornwell, reviews some of the new features of this Cornwell toolbox.

Spent last week in the West: first half of the week in Las Vegas for the Matco Show, second half in southern California (mostly Anaheim) for the Cornwell Show. Here's the 25 second review:

1 - LOTS of positive comments about business in general at both shows.

2 - was told by Matco personnel that they had strung two months of positive sales together and expected April to continue the trend

3 - was told by Cornwell management that their dealers are paying their bills on time and that technicians are (finally) getting financing.

4 - many manufacturers reported dismal sales since last Oct or Nov, but many were starting to see an uptick in orders. Some of this uptick came in February, some didn't start 'til March

5 - Santa Monica Beach has an interesting pier if you like touristy spots, but Laguna has a prettier beach.

Up is up. I'll take it. More info to follow later in the week.

Short Note Today

One day ahead of hearing it from everyone in your office, let me remind you that we Spring Forward this weekend. I can't remember if that means we gain an hour or lose an hour. And it doesn't really matter to me because I'll be flying 3 (or will it be 2) hours back in time to Las Vegas on Sunday morning. All I know for sure is that I'll be swapping our old batteries for new in every one of our smoke detectors. (Confidential to First Alert: Your marketing efforts worked on this household!)

This weekend the Matco Tool Fair begins. Next weekend I'll be off to Anaheim for the Cornwell Tool Rally. I've heard through the "grapevine" that Matco expects about 800-850 dealers and Cornwell has about 350 registered. Don't quote me on that though. As usual, I'll post everything new and exciting from the show once I get back.

In other news, at TechShop, we've been working on a new website. It will officially launch April 1, 2009, but you'll be able to see it earlier, by March 16th. Please bookmark the site, because my blog will be moving there and this blog will become inactive. I would hate to lose the few followers I have. http://www.techshopmag.com/ I'll remind you again later. We are also launching an all-new design for the magazine with our April issue. Guarantee you will LOVE it! It makes our competitors' efforts look like grade school scribbles. (Just my opinion.)

It was sunny for about a minute here today and it's starting to warm up finally. The clouds are coming in as I write this, and soon we'll endure a day and a half of rain. Nonetheless, I'm feeling optimistic. I was doing quite a bit of research this morning, and I think it's safe to say that portions of our economy are starting to see a pickup. Walmart and Sam's Club reported a sales increase of 5.1% for this February over last February. And ASA reported that a survey of 8,000 shop owners in 2008 reported a business increase of 16%. Perhaps Spring really is right around the corner, and perhaps the Recession is waning towards Recovery. I will definitely know more about what our automotive compatriots opinions are after next week.

Stay tuned!

Utterly Useless Trivia

I should save this for a Friday afternoon, but just can't. I am a trivia-junkie. If you are playing Trivial Pursuit, you want me on your team. So, here's some trivia I recently re-discovered:

Category: Science

The speed of sound has often been exceeded by what man-made object that predates flight by hundreds of years?

A: The crack of a whip is the tip exceeding the speed of sound, creating a mini-sonic boom.

Category: History

Where has anyone been able to recieve a free mug of beer and a slice of bread from, since 1136?A: The Wayfarer's Dole is a tradition of the Hospital of the Holy Cross, in Winchester, England

What was the average speed of Lee Petty's 1959 Oldsmobile when he won the first Daytona 500 in 1959?

A: 135.5 mph, finishing the 200-lap race in 3 hours, 41 minutes.

Why is a toy rubber ball enshrined in the Super Bowl section of the Pro Football Hall of Fame?

A: His kid's Wham-O Superball inspired Lamar Hunt to coin the term Super Bowl.

Category: Science

During the winter, you can glide through Ottawa, Canada on the world's longest skating rink. What is it and how long is it?

A: The frozen Rideau Canal. It is 7.8 km (4.5 miles)

What environmental catastrophe left 20 dead and thousands suffering in 1948?

A: An inversion trapped deadly smog over Denora, PA.

Category: Finance

Recessions have many causes. How did a virus trigger the Panic of 1873?

A: The economy collapsed when a virus infected 99% of the horses in America.

What was the first item sold on eBay?

A: Pierre Omidyar sold a broken laser pointer in 1995 for $14.

4 Great Rules of Life

I came across these in a recent newsletter from our benefits coordinator. They could just as easily have come from my mother or my 9th grade English teacher. They're not earth-shattering, but they're good to remember:

1. Show up. Be in the room when decisions are made. Be home when you need to be home. Face your responsibilities. (I think they're trying to say, look at the person to whom you are speaking, not at your blackberry, cell phone or computer screen.)
2. Pay attention. Listen. Look for different perspectives. Stay hungry for understanding and new information.
3. Speak the truth. Say what is true from where you sit.
4. Let go. Let it happen. Know what is in your control and what is not. Shrug off the result, looking only for what you can learn. Go forward from there.

I break 3 of these rules more often than I like. I think it comes from being "busy", or wanting to be necessary to someone or some entity. But I keep trying to improve.

And as the Dow reaches its lowest level since 1997, here are some fiscal fitness tips for you to consider:

1. Don't keep too many accounts. Your investments can get out of control if they're spread over several banks, brokerages, and financial institutions. (However, in my experience, I've consolidated the majority of my accounts under one financial planner..... and it just doesn't matter.)
2. One person can make all the decisions for your business/home, but other people need to have a working knowledge of the investments and a sense of trust with the financial advisor. (again, in my experience, I've made all the investment decisions for our family, and my husband is aware of "our" plans, but..... it just doesn't matter.)
3. Share financial goals. Discuss your goals and how you plan to work toward them. My goal was to retire from working some day. (I thought I had been working toward my goal, until today. And now I feel like.....it just doesn't matter.)
4. Put aside enough money for retirement. Experts say we should all save 10% of our take-home pay. (Can't even comment on this.)
5. Don't tie up too much money in cash or one type of investment. (ha ha ha.... I'm starting to feel lightheaded from all this great investment commentary.)

I guess today was the wrong day to try to be fiscally fit. Good luck everyone!

Since this is a tool and equipment blog, I'll close with a quote from one of history's most widely quoted, "Anonymous": "You need only two tools: WD-40 and duct tape. If it doesn't move and should, use WD-40; if it moves and shouldn't, use the tape."

Finally - here's a trivia question for you. Is it duct tape or duck tape? Why?

How's Business? Recent Survey Results from Babcox

We recently surveyed Counterman readers about their current business conditions. Counterman magazine serves the business needs of the distribution channel of the aftermarket, so editorial is geared more towards the jobber, counterperson, or retailer. The survey was conducted in February, 2009. We had 126 responses.

Of the respondents, the majority (71%) classified themselves as a Jobber (NAPA, Carquest, independent, etc.) 20% classified themselves as a WD, and the rest were either a Retail store like Advance or AutoZone, or "other".

How are sales? We all want to know how the other guy is doing before we tell our tale. We asked how their sales in January compared to January last year. 60% reported sales were down, 23% reported they were the same.

How about February, we asked. 52% reported sales were down, 31% reported sales were the same. Oddly enough, for the months of January and February, 83% reported they were even or down. Yet, I take some comfort from the fact that the number reporting their sales were down had gone down 8%. That's a good sign that there is some life in the aftermarket.

What is your forecast for your locations' purchases from suppliers in March compared to March, 2008? 45% reported they would purchase less. But 51% reported they would purchase the same or more than last March. Again, not a bad indicator.

How are your current inventory levels compared to last year at this time? As you might expect, a large portion of the respondents had lower inventory levels (44%). But 33% had the same levels, and 22% had increased inventory.

We're all interested in the end user. Is he buying our stuff? Is he still working? We wanted to know, so we asked, "how does your current wholesale customer count compare to this time last year?" 44% reported they had fewer customers, 46% reported they had the same number, and 10% reported they had more customers than last year.

Last, we asked about returns. Answer this question yourself before you read too much further: What do you think is the industry rate of returns? I thought as an industry it runs about 18-22%. But according to our survey respondents, the total returns as a % of total sales averaged 9.7%. When we conducted this same survey five years ago, that number was 15%. So again, a good sign for our industry. Does this mean all the investments made in automation (from order entry to order processing) is finally paying off? This number includes warranty, cores, etc, so it is very inclusive.

One last thought, we asked them to classify the reason for their return. Cores, of course, accounted for the largest portion of the return - 48%. But the number one reason for a return is still the wrong part was ordered (17%). This was followed closely by warranty/defective (16%), with the wrong part delivered falling to a distant third, just 8%. This seems to indicate there can still be improvement in cataloging (both paper and digital) and training.

What do you think?

I think it's Friday, and Rascal is wondering if he's going to get his toy back.

GM Sheds Some Brands: Good News or Bad?

According to Edmunds.com, the Los Angeles-based auto research firm, the number one question on consumers' minds (as it relates to GM) is "What happens to my warranty and service cost in the short and long term?"
And the answer is, that GM will probably honor the warranty, even if the brand goes away. After all, they want to keep GM customers happy and coming back for more GM cars, when their Hummer or Saturn finally dies. Philip Reed, Senior consumer advice editor at Edmunds.com addressed this question in yesterday's WSJ. He also said other dealerships would pick up the warranty work at "comparable" prices.
But he didn't directly address the fact that GM also announced they will be closing the Saturn and Hummer dealerships, and quite possibly other GM dealerships as they prepare to shrink and become profitable again. This is good news for the aftermarket. As long as repair shops know what they're doing, and perform the service at a comparable rate, they should be able to generate additional business for their shops as these changes take place. And where will the good GM/Saturn techs go? They'll bring their expertise to the good shops.

Another comment about the Saturn line that came out in the WSJ yesterday is the potential for a Saturn made in China or India. According to the report, the Saturn Dealer Council would be open to selling vehicles made by Indian or Chinese makers that would be sold as Saturns. GM did not comment on any spinoff plans.

Good News for Better Heart Health

I'm taking a break from reading about and discussing bad news. It feels like there are many things going on in our lives today that are somewhat out of our own control. So today, I only have good news for you, news that you can use to personally become a healthier person today and in the future.

Happy Belated Valentine's Day!

Heart Disease: You can control certain risk factors

• Don't smoke
• Stay at a healthy body weight
• Limit alcohol
• Exercise for at least 30 minutes a day
• Control your blood pressure
• Limit your daily salt intake

Eat right for a healthier heart: this is all the good stuff you should be eating

• Spinach and other dark, leafy greens (Popeye was right!)
• Fish and shellfish (tho not too much from Lake Erie, or your mercury levels will go through the roof!)
• Dried beans and peas (re-hydrate them before eating)
• Watermelon and cantaloupe
• Soy protein - this can help lower cholesterol
• Oatmeal and barley - reduces cholesterol and helps control blood sugar levels
• Garlic and onions - I'm Italian - I eat this stuff every day!
• Sweet potatoes
• Avocadoes
• Nonfat milk

Info is from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute